HTH Gold RLD February2013 ❤
November 22, 2022
HTH Gold RLD February2013
Those that are familiar with ancient history will tell you that is easy to get monetary inflation out of control by keeping the supply of money in circulation at a high level. This is not true of gold?
I think you are confusing the terms gold standard and currency standard. One is a price stabilization mechanism for a country in which the medium of exchange is gold. The other is a price stabilization mechanism for a country in which the medium of exchange is the government’s fiat currency.
My point was that, at least during the gold standard, it was the hot potato that caused the increase in money supply, not the other way around. At any point we could remove the hot potato from the economy. And with this single exception, the process of increasing the money supply was the same whether or not the hot potato was present: All the recipients of new money first wanted to spend it. The hot potato theory says that the increase in money supply is not driven by the increase in the number of hot potatoes; it is driven by the increase in the number of desperate/surplus people holding on to the hot potatoes. This is why the hot potato theory is so different from the theory of a zero percent inflation rate: Under the hot potato theory, the economy is never caught cold, never starves for want of capital, never grinds to a halt, never needs a currency that devalues by 2 percent or more for a decade. Under the zero-inflation theory the boom turns to bust. The hot potato effect is different in the sense that it is anticipatory; and it is much less likely to occur with a gold standard (which, by definition, doesnt allow the hot potato effect to occur at all, since no one will want to hold it) than a commodity standard.
But this raises an interesting puzzle. If that were true, then, since the currency is stronger, it should be setting the reserve interest rate lower than it would be if the currency were weaker. Its obviously not the case. The real problem is that the currency isnt really strong or weak in the gold standard sense.
A currency like that doesnt really exist in a gold standard world, except when it really is strong enough to act as a reserve currency. When that happens, the magic is already gone, and it becomes subject to the usual externalities of other interest rates, and more importantly they are subject to the usual externalities of capital flows.
THe point of a gold standard is that the currency is subject to the externalities of interest rates, and capital flows are controlled by the amount of reserves. If a currency was always (strong or weak) subject to the externalities of a gold standard, it would no longer be a gold standard. The question is whether it was ever a gold standard to begin with.
Many people want a gold standard for lots of bad reasons. But if you want it because you are worried about the externalities of capital flows, your worries are illusory. Banks just move their money around.
I would prefer a gold standard to the current system. I would like my government to issue all the money, and me to hold all the gold. My own gold would not be fungible, but the coins would be. So if the coins got debased, it wouldn’t destroy the value of my own gold.
Indeed you could provide that clarification, but I cant wait. As it is, Ive given you my view, and for my part I dont feel obliged to any the less because you didnt understand my argument. You have been provided with the real problem, not the false problems you tried to focus attention on and highlight as a means of discrediting the problem of overpopulation. Your real problem is that you still dont see the problem. You still think gold and the power to create money have intrinsic value. They dont. They only have value because of the thing with which they are correlated. When that thing goes away, so do all other things. Until that thing has an intrinsic value, none can.
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